External validation of the Options prediction model for predicting emergency caesarean in first pregnancy?s.

Two-three in ten women will have an emergency caesarean birth in their first pregnancy. This can be traumatic to women, their babies and their families. It is associated with more serious medical complications for the mother and is expensive for the NHS. The Options study will develop a smartphone app or website for midwives and doctors to use with women in their first pregnancy. It will use information about a woman’s pregnancy to predict whether she is high or low risk for emergency Caesarean at 36 weeks of pregnancy. If she is high-risk, her doctor or midwife will discuss her birth choices, with specific Options information, which will include options to reduce the chance of an emergency caesarean.

The Options prediction tool has been based on a tool made for use in fit and healthy women, and added extra information so that it can be used to predict emergency caesarean for any first-time mum. We have used real-world pregnancy information from Bristol to make this prediction tool. We would now like to see whether the tool works to predict emergency caesarean birth in women outside of Bristol. This will ensure that the tool can be used anywhere in the UK. To do this we would like to check the tool works in the Born in Bradford cohort too. We are also working with the Pregnancy Outcomes Prediction Cohort in Cambridge and developing access to real-world pregnancy data in Liverpool.

Once we have completed this work, we will make any changes needed to the Options prediction tool and test whether it is useful to women when considering their birth preferences.